University of Minnesota
BART Enrollment Year: 2003
Atmospheric Mentor: Dan Vimont, University of Washington
Biosphere Mentor: Francie Cuthbert, University of Minnesota
Prediction of the Effects of Climate Change on Great Lakes Avian Populations: It has been stated that we can ameliorate large uncertainties in regional climate change scenarios by creating more connections between ecology and climatology. As the current global warming paradigm presents a set of new impacts on ecosystems, it is imperative to take climate change scenarios into account while modeling species' population dynamics and designing conservation programs for species, communities and ecosystems. As average global temperature continues to rise, it is expected that we will see highly heterogeneous changes from region to region. It is these regional changes that will most directly impact ecology and conservation efforts. In the Great Lakes region, climate change will manifest itself as changes in temperature trends, seasonality, water levels, winter ice coverage and synoptic weather patterns. The goal of my project is to predict a reasonable scenario for the effects of global warming on selected Great Lakes avian populations. The study will begin by focusing on the federally endangered Piping Plover (Charadrius medodus).
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