COMPLEX SYSTEMS SEMINAR
Long-term Relationships and Routes of HIV Transmission


Feb
19
2013

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  • Speaker: Jonathan Dushoff (McMaster University, Ontario Canada, Biology)
  • Host Department: Physics
  • Date: 02/19/2013
  • Time: 12:00 PM

  • Location: 411 West Hall

  • Description:

    The proportion of heterosexual HIV transmission that occurs within stable partnerships, as opposed to among single people, or in extra-couple relationships, is a subject of active debate, with strong relevance for planning public-health strategies. We use a hazard-based approach to try to disentangle routes of transmission in DHS survey data covering 27,000 couples in sub-Saharan Africa. We also examine the dynamic underpinnings of this question with a dynamic model. We conclude that all three routes are important, and that intervention strategies should therefore be targeted broadly.